I just had a bit of an Epiphany while in the shower. Cliche? Yeah maybe but suck it up. I am simply not going to play set-ups that I have not tracked anymore.
That sounds simple and easy but somewhere somehow after dropping the whole momo stuff I started off with in the beginning, I got back to trading on a whiff. Going to start a fresh excel sheet and find a way to capitalise on the gap-ups. There is opportunity but I need to find a set-up that shows consistency. However long that takes, I am not going to make a single trade until that happens.
Cheers, I hope this would then give me some more opp other than the rare bottom bounces that I feel I am getting a little hang off.
Hurray! There goes my Sunday 😉
So today I tried this dip-up strategy again I was kind of eyeing. I cannot deny that I am in a bit of a trading rut. In the last 10 trades I have had 20% accuracy, which is pretty disgusting.
However, there were a couple of things I did correctly today. I put orders at target entry points and waited for the stock to hit there. It felt way more controlled and calming and I think I will employ this for my bottom bounce strategy if it comes by. Secondly, I also managed my loss super well because I was in with manageable size. When the stock washed hard I waited for a bounce as you can see in the second trade. They were both the same strategy and hence I put it as the same trade. I figured by timing was off on the first try.
Either ways, I need to commit myself to taking only set-ups I have tracked. This one felt like something I saw worked 2-4 times and assumed it was the norm. I really got to stop doing that though.
On the other side of things, ever since I got back I realised I have lost about USD $280 but only USD $30 before commissions. This speaks volumes. MY accuracy has not been up to standard but it does show that my winners are quite strong and an average win is significantly more than a loss. Now I just to work on making em more consistent.
It has been a while since I did one of these but this week I traded on all 5 days. It is rare for me to do so but it does depict my growing passion and addiction to the art. Still being relatively new (based on hours spent studying and in the markets), I made a ton of mistakes. I also made some significant strides but today I would like to just pen down my three biggest takeaways:
- Have confidence in your strategy. Many times this week I got scared out of positions quick only to be proven later that the stock did exactly as I expected and according to the pattern that I had studied or analysed.
- It is okay to miss set-ups. I found myself chasing things a couple of times even when my target entry point was missed or even worse, was not hit yet. I realised, the markets will constantly provide opportunity and its ok to miss some sometimes. That ticker you been analysing for 2 hours before the market opens just may react quicker than expected or hit a support much later than expected. Its okay if it goes down as a miss!
- Trade the chart, not your emotions. This ties in well with the above two. Be patient and wait for you entry. Once entered follow chart patterns to take profit or cut losses. Do not follow what you feel may be the best thing to do at that time. Take guidance from the chart
Remember how I was hoping for that big smile. Well it never came.
- Wins were on average bigger than losses
- P&L was close to break even
- Took small number of trades
- Accuracy is still terrible
- Made a few chases in this set
- Set 4 and Set 2 look about in P&L terms – one step back and one step forward. So back to square one in a way
Writing this was a bit tough. Up until yesterday I was actually green on P&L but red on net. That would have been nice to report about today. At least it would have been progress. Today, the story is different after two losing trades. I am sure every trader who made it at some point questioned the journey. None of them quit though so that’s probably what I am going to do. I just got to do more watching and less trading.
Now I have the third set of data in. Just after this I took a huge break to re-think and strategise.
Basically 1 step forward and 1 step back. I look ok number of trades but my accuracy was off. My losses were on average higher than my winners. The only icing on the cake was the the biggest loss was smaller than my biggest win in absolute terms. I guess it means I was cutting losses well but my strategy was just on average not viable.
I am excited to see how my 4th set comes in. Hopefully I will have a big smile on my face.
So I have not been around for a while. Many reasons but mostly because I needed to regroup my thoughts. Admitting that I had failed on the first try was tough. I knew it was a possibility but its something you only can feel and overcome once you reach there. I had about 900 left in my account or thereabouts. I had three choices:
- Fight till the last dollar
- Top up
- Give up
Choice 3 was quickly out of the question. It was at most a passing thought. Throughout this whole journey, I had loved every step of the way. I paid a tuition for that education for sure but I knew it was just not my time yet. Fighting till the last dollar felt like i was being desperate and using terrible economics. Opportunity costs started to increase as there were many trades I had to forgo and many that I could not take the correct size on. So what did I do? I took choice number two. I topped up. But this time I knew I had to change something. That was back to the books.
I created excel models and filled my spreadsheets with values. I knew I had to take on a very analytical approach and focus on three main things.
Am I done researching those things? NO. I still need time before I can say properly that I am fully back in the markets. Will I ever be done researching? Probably not, but I do need a threshold amount of data points for my analysis to be even mildly significant. Hence time. So I will be back!
So I have not been around for a while. I have a few reasons for that. The last time I was here I got punched in the gut twice by 3 consecutive loses. This sent my account to the gutter and today I am actually slightly under a grand on my account. It renders a lot of my strategies useless and put me in a tricky spot. Do I accept defeat and top up my account or fight till the last dollar?
Well, I took what I believe to be an in between solution. I decided to start collecting more data on this reversal set-up. It seems like something I could deal with. Having said that, I also decided to top up my account to round about 3 – 3.2 grand so I get a fighting chance again.
I kinda knew I might have to deal with this day since I started. But hey, I think I am being smart here and not just waiting for a blow up before I top up.